  |
Lebanon's
Tectonic Shift
Marco Vicenzino
The fourth and final round of Lebanon’s election
produced a clear mandate for the coalition that emerged
after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, with the
likelihood of his son becoming the next prime minister.
However, the results of the third round of Lebanon's
parliamentary elections on June 12th marked the return
of Michel Aoun to the center of Lebanese politics after
14 years of exile in France and nearly a month after
returning to Beirut. He will clearly emerge as a leading
figure of the opposition in parliament. Aoun’s victory
in the third round also marked the consolidation of the
Christian community as a more cohesive political force
after a lengthy leadership vacuum in which Aoun has
surfaced as the principal leader. The overwhelming
gains in Mount Lebanon, the historical center of
Lebanon's national identity, particularly increased the
political symbolism of Aoun's victory in the third
round.
The first two rounds of Lebanon's parliamentary
elections were fairly predictable due to a gerrymandered
electoral system that was designed to guarantee and
accommodate a Syrian presence which does not reflect
current realities. The Hariri bloc won Beirut and the
Shiite combination of
Hizbullah/Amal swept all seats in southern Lebanon. In
the third electoral round of June 12th, parties were
competing for nearly half of the parliamentary seats in
the religiously intertwined and diverse areas of Mount
Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. It provided the first
real electoral competition and significant insight into
the future of Lebanese politics. As a part of a
strategy to maximize electoral gains, many unholy
alliances have been formed between anti-Syrian and
previously pro-Syrian parties at the local district
level. Aoun has also participated in this strategy.
However, Aoun's comparative advantage is to have never
cooperated or
collaborated directly with the Syrians during their
occupation, unlike the majority of Lebanon's current
political figures, including Walid Jumblatt, the Hariri
bloc, the Shiite groups Hizbullah/Amal and Christians,
such as the current President Emile Lahoud. They
operated and benefited on a system based on patronage
and clientelism with Syria. Although Aoun draws support
predominantly from Christians, he has also won the
backing of many secular, non-Christian Lebanese
nationalists who remember his "last stand" against
Syrian troops in the final days of Lebanon's civil war.
However, these final days also provide Aoun's opponents
with tragic memories of the brutality of Lebanon's civil
war.
The June 12th results also marked a setback for
Lebanon's anti-Syrian opposition which emerged in late
2004 after the approval of United Nations Security
Council Resolution 1559 and consolidated after Hariri's
assassination. The coalition was one of convenience and
based solely on Syrian withdrawal. Once withdrawal was
completed, the coalition began to unravel as traditional
sectarian interests surfaced. The June 12th
results were a personal setback for Walid Jumblatt, who
as a central figure of the anti-Syrian opposition sought
to consolidate his position as a national leader, and
not just as the head of the Druze community. Although
Jumblatt presently continues to exercise significant
influence over the Hariri bloc, he has failed to
maintain a similar role over the Christian community.
Aoun's third-round victory dissolved the distinction
between Syrian and anti-Syrian forces and complicates
Lebanon's political landscape, particularly for those,
such as Jumblatt, who sought to secure their gains after
Syrian withdrawal.
The first major casualty after the elections could be
the current President Emile Lahoud, a Christian
appointed by Syria whose presidential term was extended
at Syria's insistence. According to Lebanon's
constitution, the post of president is reserved for the
leader of the Christian community. The election’s final
outcome may increase pressure for Lahoud’s resignation.
However, the precarious world of Lebanese politics may
produce a compromise that allows him to finish his
term.
The new parliament will clearly contain the same names
and faces which dominated Lebanon's political landscape
during and after the civil war. However, altering the
status quo must remain a priority and not business as
usual. Key challenges include implementing electoral
reform to reflect contemporary realities, combating
corruption, instituting greater transparency and
accountability, reducing sectarianism, overhauling the
economy, restructuring the massive national debt, and
the difficult task of disarming militias, principally
Hizbollah, and integrating them into the Lebanese army.
Although overwhelming, these challenges are not
insurmountable provided that differences continue to be
resolved through dialogue and compromise with the ballot
box, not bullets as the main instrument of political
legitimacy. The alternative is a return to the past in
which a fragile political balance of power was broken
and civil war ensued.
June 19th, 2005
Marco Vicenzino is
Executive Director of the Global Strategy Project in
Washington, DC, and served as the Deputy Executive
Director of the International Institute for Strategic
Studies-US (IISS-US). E-mail: msv@globalsp.org
Updated 6/19/05
|
 |
