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Balancing
American Interests: Russia, Georgia and the War on
Terrorism
Paul J.
Saunders
One of
the greatest challenges to American foreign policy in
prosecuting the war on terrorism is finding the
appropriate balance between accepting other states’
definitions of terrorism—and their unsavory responses to
it—uncritically, on one hand, and rejecting their
definitions and, inevitably, their assistance in pursuing
key American interests, on the other. This challenge was
illustrated starkly last week by Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s suggestion that Moscow might strike
militarily--and unilaterally--at Chechen rebels that have
taken refuge in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge. Mr. Putin
argued that Tbilisi has taken insufficient action to close
its borders to the Chechens and, as a result, Georgia is
harboring terrorists. Mr. Putin argues that Russia has the
right, to act, not only under Article 51 of the UN
Charter, but also under Security Council Resolution 1373,
adopted after 9/11.
A recent
editorial in The Wall Street Journal dismisses the
Russian President’s statement (delivered with admittedly
poor timing on September 11) as an opportunist attempt to
win a free hand to launch attacks into Georgia in return
for not using Russia’s veto in the United Nations
Security Council to block resolutions authorizing the
United States to use force against Iraq. (1) Reality is
somewhat more complex.
While the
Journal is correct that Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze is no Saddam Hussein, he is hardly the
"enlightened" leader the Journal
suggests. As Charles King argues in the print edition of The
National Interest, Mr. Shevardnadze is neither a
committed democratic leader nor an effective economic
reformer. (2) On the contrary, he has contributed to the
survival of Soviet-style governance arrangements and
allowed corruption to flourish. Senior Bush Administration
officials have confirmed that some Chechen rebels have
taken refuge in Georgia. Moreover, as The Wall Street
Journal itself has reported, the Chechens have had
links to Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. (3)
Thus Mr.
Shevardnadze’s enthusiastic affinity for the United
States seems driven less by shared values than by
strategic calculations and, frankly, a desire to poke his
finger in Moscow’s eye whenever possible. Similarly, the
Georgian President’s approach to Russia seems to be both
an attempt to distract attention from his government’s
domestic failings (which are plentiful) and a continuing
bad habit previously nurtured by Washington. Toward the
end of the Clinton Administration, frustrated by the
failure of their earlier policies toward Russia, American
officials more-or-less sought to use Georgia as a key
player in a neo-containment policy toward a weakened
Russia. Today, however, gratuitous efforts to snub the
Kremlin—such as Mr. Shevardnadze’s decision to allow
the Russian government to learn of the deployment of U.S.
special forces to train and equip his military from
Washington rather than Tbilisi—are needlessly
provocative and alienate Russian officials and the Russian
public. As someone who "helped bring the Cold War to
a peaceful end", as the Journal recalls in its
editorial, the Georgian President, of all people, should
understand that a pro-Western foreign policy need not be
inherently anti-Russian. Many other governments in the
region have managed to strike a more successful and stable
balance.
This is
in no way a defense of Russian conduct vis-à-vis Georgia
or, for that matter, Chechnya, which is the source of the
problem. Moscow has been unnecessarily heavy-handed in
both cases and nothing short of brutal in the latter. Any
presumptive Russian attacks into Georgia would likely
follow this same pattern; the under-trained, under-paid,
under-equipped, and demoralized Russian army is unlikely
to mount high-tech precision strikes against small and
highly mobile groups of Chechen fighters.
Still,
leaving aside Mr. Putin’s (and Boris Yeltsin’s) flawed
approaches to these problems, it is clear that both issues
are among Russia’s highest priorities. Chechen
independence is viewed as a direct threat to the
territorial integrity of the Russian Federation, not to
mention its social stability, given the lawlessness
rampant in that region. The ability of Chechen rebels to
attack Russian forces and then flee into Georgia
contributes notably to that threat. From the Russian
perspective, the danger posed by Chechnya is comparable to
that faced by the United States since September 11.
This does
not mean that the United States should wink at Russian
attacks into Georgia in order to have its way in Iraq.
However, ignoring Russia's concerns is counterproductive;
Washington cannot expect Moscow’s substantial
cooperation in the war on terrorism to endure if there is
no reciprocal effort to address Russian priorities. The
last decade of the U.S.-Russian relationship has already
demonstrated—more than once—that
"partnership" cannot be a one-way street.
This has
two implications for American policy. With specific regard
to Georgia, the United States should make it clear that it
cannot endorse unilateral Russian military strikes into
Georgia. At the same time, Washington must demonstrate,
beyond rhetoric, that it is genuinely interested in
addressing Russian concerns. Indeed, taking into account
Moscow’s strong opposition to unilateral American action
against Iraq and strong preference to resolve the matter
in the Security Council (4), the Kremlin can hardly take the
position that a multilateral approach involving the United
Nations (or an appropriate regional organization like the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) would
not be appropriate for Georgia. Alternatively, Washington
could work directly with Tbilisi and Moscow. The Bush
Administration already seems to have had some success in
encouraging Mr. Shevardnadze to work with the Kremlin, and
some senior Russian officials are prepared to work within
a tripartite format (Russia, Georgia, and the United
States) to secure the border regions, prevent the
infiltration of fighters and funds into Russian territory,
and remove safe havens from Georgian territory.
More
broadly, American officials should approach the top
priorities of other important allies and partners in the
war on terrorism with similar seriousness. A global
campaign against terror cannot be successful as a strictly
American enterprise, yet it can be little more than that
if key governments are not genuinely on board. This is not
a theoretical distinction: the difference between
substantial cooperation and pro forma gestures by
other governments could be a longer war on terrorism that
again costs thousands of American lives. Winning the war
quickly—and saving those lives—is our country’s most
vital national interest.
Paul J. Saunders is the
Director of The Nixon Center and a senior editor at In
the National Interest.
(1) "Putin's Iraq
Price", The Wall Street Journal, September 17,
2002. The quid pro quo--of Russian support
for an American attack in return for Washington giving
Moscow a free hand in Georgia, has also been suggested by
Yuri Shchekochikin, in his contribution to this issue of In
the National Interest. (2)
"Potemkin Democracy", The National Interest,
Summer 2001. (3) "Saga
of Dr. Zawahri Sheds Light On the Roots of Al-Qaeda
Terror: How a Secret, Failed Trip to Chechnya Turned Key
Plotter's Focus to America and bin Laden", The
Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2002. (4)
A point emphasized by Dimitry Rogozin in his contribution
to this issue of In the National Interest.
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