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Bush, Iraq and the War on Terror
A Conversation with Ambassador L. Paul
Bremer
Q: Some commentators, both here in the United States
and in Europe, were hoping that the President would
present a more detailed position for action against
Iraq. Some of the post-speech reaction is that the
President said "nothing new" in Cincinnati. Do
you think that President Bush strengthened the case that
action needs to be taken against Iraq?
A: Well, I think that there were a couple of new
elements in the speech, but I don't think that anything
in it was strikingly new nor do I think anything was
intended to be. I must also say that I don't think the
President's remarks were directed at the Europeans, but
rather at a domestic audience--the American people and
the Congress. I believe he certainly began to lay out a
stronger case in support of taking action against Iraq.
Judging by the reaction of American politicians, what
they are saying, it seems to me that he achieved that
goal. The White House quite properly cautioned that this
speech would not present a great deal of new material,
and there was not much new in it--but it was a well
laid-out case. What was new, however, was that President
Bush essentially went through each of the arguments that
has been presented as a reason for not taking action
against Iraq, and addressed each one.
Q: In the last issue of In the National Interest,
Michael O'Hanlon argued that Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld has been "deliberately misleading the
country about the presence of a 'smoking gun' link
between Saddam and Al-Qaeda." (LINK: http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/vol1issue4OHanlon.html)
Should the administration continue to draw the
connections between the Iraqi regime and terrorism, or
is it more productive to focus on Iraq's pursuit of
weapons of mass destruction?
A: In my view, it is incontestable that Iraq has
supported terrorism. Iraq has been on the State
Department list of states that support terrorism for
more than twenty years. At least two major terrorist
groups have had their headquarters openly in Baghdad for
most of that time--the Palestine Liberation Front and
the Mujahedin-e Khalq. Moreover, as the President said
last night, known international terrorists like Abu
Abbas and Abu Nidal have lived openly in Baghdad--in the
case of Abu Abbas, more than twenty years, and Abu Nidal,
for more than a decade. So it is incontestable that Iraq
is a supporter of terrorism, and on that there is no
disagreement. [NOTE: Public denunciation of Iraq's
sponsorship of terrorism predates 9/11. The cases cited
by the President were covered, for example, in the Patterns
of Global Terrorism report for 2000, especially in
the report's Overview, which can be accessed at http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2000/2441.htm.]
It is also clear that there are reports --reports
that are credible and that date back for the past
decade--of meetings between Al-Qaeda and members of the
Iraqi government. We know that Iraqi officials have
helped to train members of Al-Qaeda in the use of
biological and chemical weapons. So then you have the
question of September 11.
I read Michael O'Hanlon's article, which I felt was
very narrowly focused on the question of whether Iraq
is, in some fashion, culpable for the September 11
attacks. That is a narrow question. Certainly, if you
indeed had conclusive evidence of Iraqi sponsorship of
that specific attack, you would certainly have a causus
belli. However, in my view, it does not really have
much bearing on the larger issue--there is more than
sufficient evidence to establish Iraq's support of
terrorism.
Indeed, I think O'Hanlon misses the point about the
meeting in Prague [between the 9/11 hijacker Mohammed
Atta and an Iraqi intelligence officer operating under
diplomatic cover, Ahmed Khalil Ibrahim Samir al-Ani, in
April 2001], that he seems to dismiss offhand. For the
last six months, people have gone back to the Czech
Intelligence Service, over and over, and every time, the
Czechs reply that they are positive that this meeting
took place. To then implicitly call the Secretary of
Defense a liar in the face of that seems a bit over the
top. However, I must again reiterate that I think the
whole article is a bit of a red herring. Its
implication--that we should not pursue action against
Iraq because we do not have proof that Saddam Hussein
masterminded September 11--is incorrect. Saddam's
support for terrorism is clear, it is documented, and it
has been there for years. In fact, Saddam's support for
terrorism has been going on for years, long before the
whole issue of his weapons of mass destruction rose to
the fore, which is, after all, a separate issue.
Q: Based on your assessment of the reactions to the
speech, what happens now? Where do we go from here?
A: For more than three months, I have been saying
that once the President made up his mind on Iraq, three
things would happen. First, the President would have the
complete support of his Cabinet. Second, he would have
overwhelming support in the Congress to take action.
Third, our allies would join us. I believe that even the
Germans will find a way to participate, whether by
sending military police or hospital units. The Europeans
will be there.
I do not anticipate that a new United Nations
Security Council resolution will be vetoed. While I
cannot foresee what the resolution will say
specifically, I think that it will be satisfactory. I
saw the comments made by Russian Foreign Minister Igor
Ivanov [LINK: http://www.inthenationalinterest.com/Articles/vol1issue3Ivanov.html].
Certainly, each of the other permanent members, the
Russians, the French, and so forth, have their own
particular interests, but they are not going to veto a
resolution. The Chinese will not, either.
At that point, the question then becomes: What
happens, once a resolution is passed? I predict that
Saddam at first will proclaim his defiance, that he will
not accept its conditions, but as the deadline draws
closer he will change his position, in an attempt to
have last-minute negotiations. The administration hopes,
however, and I share this hope, that at that point,
there will be no negotiations, just a recognition that
the game is up.
Q: For the last year, some people have cited the old
proverb, "If you chase two rabbits, you'll catch
neither", meaning that preparing for action against
Iraq will distract from the war against Al-Qaeda.
A: I thought that the president handled that issue
rather well on Monday. The "two rabbits"
approach strikes me as confusing tactics with strategy.
The strategic interest in the war on terrorism is to
find a way to reduce state support for terrorism,
because, in the end, terrorists need territory from
which to operate--whether that is Afghanistan or Iraq or
Sudan or Somalia. They have to have some place where
they can put their feet on the ground. From a strategic
point of view, therefore, dealing with the regime in
Iraq in fact is a major step in the fight against
terrorism. Now, we have the biggest military force in
the world--and we certainly can find a way to continue
pursuing the terrorists while dealing with Iraq.
Moreover, the war against Al-Qaeda, at this point, is no
longer a military war--it is now a war of intelligence
and law enforcement. It is not as if we are going to
have to have five divisions deployed somewhere in the
world to fight Al-Qaeda; that part of the war is over.
So I just don't see the contradiction here.
The President has to keep his eye on the strategic
vision behind the war on terror--that is his job. I
agree with him that dealing with Iraq is a good step in
the long-term strategy of defeating terrorism as a force
in international affairs.
The Hon. L. Paul Bremer, chairman and chief executive
of Marsh Crisis Consulting, served as chairman of the
National Commission on Terrorism and is a member of the
President's Homeland Security Advisory Council.
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