The enlargement of the European Union--incorporating
10 new states, applicants largely from post-Communist
Europe--is the most important geostrategic event since
the terrorist attacks on the United States on 9/11.
Unlike the latter, however, it is mostly a benign
process—yet its impact on global affairs should not be
underestimated.
First and foremost, when the latest enlargement round
is completed, the European Union will be more populous,
have a bigger market and possess an overall higher total
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than the United States.
The EU’s eastward expansion also means that the
countries of the Balkans, as well as Russia, Ukraine and
Belarus, will feel the increased "civilizational"
pull of the West. The consolidation of the EU’s
eastward flank will strengthen civil society and
democratic tendencies in all of those countries.
However, the impact of expansion on the existing
members of the EU should also not be discounted.
Inflexible labor regulations in Western Europe, for
example, will be undermined by competition from migrant
workers and by capital flight to the east to take
advantage of a cheaper skilled labor base. The expansion
of the Union will also oblige France and Germany, the
EU's central powers, to operate more democratically. On
the downside, a complete failure to tackle the ludicrous
Common Agricultural Policy at Copenhagen, leading to its
ossification for many years into the future, ensures
ongoing trade frictions with the United States and
between the developed West as a whole with the rest of
the world.
With enlargement, the EU will now have a plausible
claim to speaking for the entire continent, and the
sense of its weight will grow. Spurred by both their own
anti-Americanism and patronizing talk from Washington,
Europeans might develop a continental-wide nationalism
that will one day frustrate American policymakers more
than today's impotence. Yet, before Washington is rocked
by predictions of a coming clash with Europe, the United
States should remember that EU enlargement was inspired
by America's decision to enlarge NATO. New and future EU
members have first been integrated into the
Euro-Atlantic world because of the efforts undertaken by
the United States. Indeed, a new pro-American
constituency may develop within the European Union among
the ranks of the "easterners." Therefore, it
makes sense for the United States, in order to retain
and gain further influence, to continue to advocate the
inclusion of countries to the east of the enlarged
Union.
Radek Sikorski served as Poland's deputy minister for
defense and for foreign affairs. Currently, he is
executive director of the New Atlantic Initiative and
resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
