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Rumors
Nikolas
Gvosdev
Now that we on the verge of the election year, rumors
have already begun to swirl around Washington as to
possible shake-ups in the Bush team for its second term
(barring, of course, the possibility that President Bush
may not be successful in his bid for re-election.)
In the interests of full disclosure, I have not been
approached by any senior member of the administration
nor by members of their staffs. Nor can I vouch for the
veracity of any of the information provided below, and
as the reader will soon discover, some of it is quite
contradictory. What I am interested in doing in the
space of this week's column, however, is to bring to
light a number of the things being said around the
proverbial water cooler.
Take Jim Lobe's November 1st essay in The
Asia Times (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/EK01Aa01.html).
In discussing the resignation of J. D. Crouch II as
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International
Security Policy and the decision to assign more
responsibility for Iraq to National Security Advisor
Condoleezza Rice, Lobe quoted
a "knowledgeable source" who said: " … they're starting
to move people around," said one knowledgeable source.
"It's all about [Bush's] re-election and how to get rid
of the loonies without looking like they screwed up."
Lobe
went on to write: "Some sources say that Robert
Blackwill, the administration's former ambassador to
India who was taken on as a senior aide by Rice last
month, could be most responsible for the shifts.
Blackwill, who was Rice's boss in the National Security
Council during the first Bush administration, is a savvy
Republican operator with friends and protégés in key
posts in the national security bureaucracy and on
Capitol Hill. While considered on the right, he
reportedly shares the first Bush's distrust of
neo-conservatives in particular."
Most of
the rumors now floating around town can be grouped into
two categories: the fate of Secretary of State Colin
Powell and the fate of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Usually connected to each individual rumor is the
inference that electoral politics, for 2004 and for
2008, is driving the realignment--in other words,
presidential advisor Karl Rove is playing a hand in this
since the president's poll numbers are dropping over
Iraq.
In no
particular order, here are the various scenarios:
The
initial movements:
1)
Donald
Rumsfeld will be eased out of the Pentagon (not directly
"fired" but will announce his "desire" to return to
"civilian life", but that he will "take the blame" for
the mistakes of the Iraq war;
2)
Colin
Powell will retire from the State Department;
3)
Since
Dick Cheney is not envisioned as a standard-bearer for
the Republicans in 2008, he will either not be
re-nominated to the vice-presidency or he will resign
the office in early 2005. Even if, as some expect,
Governor "Jeb" Bush of
Florida
would be the 2008 standard-bearer, a "backup" candidate
is still needed should Governor Bush implode between now
and 2008.
The
reshuffling:
1)
Paul
Wolfowitz will be appointed National Security Advisor (a
position which incidentally will not require Senate
confirmation)
2)
Condoleezza Rice will move to the State Department
(unless "plan B" is initiated; see below)
3)
Colin
Powell, while bound by a family promise not to campaign
for office, could be appointed to the vice-presidency in
the event of a Cheney resignation.
Plan
"B" scenarios:
1)
Condoleezza Rice is elevated to the vice-presidency to
remain in close contact with the president (and to trump
the Democrats);
2)
Dick
Cheney moves to take his old job as Secretary of
Defense;
3)
Tom
Ridge is elevated to the vice-presidency as a standby
for 2008 (to round out his experience as a governor and
head of Homeland Security).
The
first rule of any rumor campaign, of course, is: cui
bono? Who benefits? Whether any of these rumors
are realistic or not, it is clear that, within the
Republican Party, there is unease over the perceived
predominance of the neo-conservatives.
What
these various scenarios also suggest is that if the Iraq
operation continues to be perceived by growing numbers
of Americans as a quagmire or as a failure, and if the
president's popularity declines as a result, that plans
are in place to begin to assign blame quickly. There
is, of course, a second strategy that is also in play.
While rumors float around about a possible "realignment"
of the Bush Administration toward a more
centrist-realist orientation, the administration is also
testing the resonance of other messages (such as the
vice-president's address at The Heritage Foundation), to
see whether those themes energize the Republican base.
(So far, that message--of action versus inaction--has
won out over the various more critical assessments that
have begun to circulate, but that may change.)
What is
also of especial interest is the degree to which foreign
governments have taken an interest in these rumors.
Many long-standing partners of the United States have
indicated quiet support for such realignment away from
the neo-conservatives, arguing that more productive and
beneficial relations with the United States can only
occur when pragmatic realists dominate the
administration's foreign policy.
Stay
tuned for further developments.
Nikolas
K. Gvosdev is editor of
In the
National Interest.
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