Outside View: Putin Redefines Politics

Nikolas Gvosdev

United Press International

December 8, 2003

The results of Russia's parliamentary elections make it clear the country's political system is being consolidated along "managed pluralist" lines. Managed pluralism refers to a system where the number and type of political options are consciously regulated by a central authority, in this case, the Kremlin.

With more than 90 percent of the ballots tallied, it is clear that President Vladimir Putin's team has succeeded in its efforts to redefine the political system. In the party-list voting, "United Russia," the statist-reform pro-presidential party, received nearly 37 percent of the vote.

The Kremlin also succeeded in providing loyal "alternatives" for voters. While the opposition Communists took nearly 13 percent of the vote, 9 percent of the electorate defected to the newly-formed Rodina, or Motherland bloc, a "communist-lite" faction that made it clear it would be prepared to work constructively with the Kremlin.

The Liberal Democrats, who have also indicated their willingness to function politically within Kremlin parameters, also took support away from the Communists, particularly in southern Siberia.

So, while the new parliament will contain representatives from a variety of political tendencies -- from leftists to nationalists -- the absolute majority will be deputies willing to work within a political system that has been delineated by the Kremlin.

It is significant that more Russians voted for "none of the above" than for either of the two Western-oriented liberal parties. Indeed, if the two parties had joined forces and ceased their ongoing internecine wrangling, there would be a liberal alternative in the parliament as well. Indeed, there are indications that the Kremlin would have preferred that the Union of Right Forces cross the 5 percent threshold. And opinion polls taken prior to the election seemed to suggest that the liberals might still gain party representation.

It is also clear that many ordinary Russians who support continued reform decided that "half a delivered loaf" was better than nothing. In other words, "United Russia" is more likely to move forward with a reform agenda, even a circumscribed one, than the "liberal" parties who have not shown any ability to deliver on their rhetoric.

Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces, or SPS, continued to enjoy strong support in their traditional bases in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but they lost overall support across the country. Both liberal parties polled under the minimum 5 percent threshold needed to receive seats under the party lists.

Individual members of both liberal parties will be present in the Duma representing single-mandate constituencies. However, the erosion in their standing is a clear sign that Putin's statist-reformist agenda enjoys more support among Russians after a decade of the "creative destruction" that marked the Yeltsin administration.

Indeed, these elections -- where the balloting itself appears to have been largely free though the election campaign was weighted largely in favor of pro-government parties, especially in terms of media coverage -- are the first referendum on Putin's policies since his election in 2000. They indicate general public support for continued economic reforms and a willingness to allow greater limits on civil liberties in return for a stronger campaign against crime and corruption.

Russia indeed now has a changed political landscape. For the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, the chief executive now enjoys a commanding majority in the lower house of the parliament. This presents Putin with a real opportunity to make the Cabinet responsible to the legislature, to move Russia in the direction of having a government that is accountable to parliament.

Unlike President Boris Yeltsin, whose relationship with the parliament was nearly always hostile and who tended to rule through executive orders, bypassing the legislature, Putin now has the ability to work with a legislature that has an overwhelming majority committed to an agenda of pursuing further structural reforms in the economy, government and the military.

Certainly, it is not a reform agenda that enjoys the Washington think tank seal of approval. But what is important is that after the deadlock of the Yeltsin years, the executive and the legislature will both be committed to policies that are politically achievable.

After a decade of being the dominant force in parliament, the Communists and their allies have had their position reduced in half. In turn, the success of United Russia gives Putin the political capital he needs to continue his policies for his second term, among them, the potentially sticky question of the reform of the natural resource monopolies and continuing the fight against corruption.

These elections clearly demonstrate that Russia has taken a further step toward managed pluralism, backing away from the promise of "uncontrolled liberalism" that many hoped that the Yeltsin era would produce.

Russians seem content with a system where elections, alternatives, freedom of speech and the media, and the ability to replace political leaders is "adjusted" by the Kremlin. But these elections also hold real promise of placing Russia's reform process on a much more secure basis. Rather than concentrating on "what might have been," we should focus on the opportunities that have been presented by United Russia's decisive win.

(Nikolas K. Gvosdev is a senior fellow at The Nixon Center and executive editor of The National Interest.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues.)