UK People Still Back Iraq Action

March 24, 2004
By Iain Murray

Just over a year ago, the received wisdom was that the British people did not support Tony Blair’s stance on Iraq.  So I was forced to write an article pointing out that the polling figures did not back up that interpretation.  Today, the received wisdom once again has it that Tony Blair’s stance on Iraq is unpopular.  The failure to find WMD has seriously dented the British people’s enthusiasm for Iraq and similar adventures, the argument goes, and the supposed “whitewash” of the Hutton Inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the famous dossier Her Majesty’s Government used as the basis of its case for war has led to the action becoming much less popular in retrospect.  Pro-Europeans contend that Britain would be better off severing its ties with America and joining the sophisticates of Old Europe instead.

So goes the received wisdom.  Once again, it is inaccurate.  A new poll for the BBC, whose coverage of the war was such that sailors on HMS Ark Royal demanded they receive Fox News Channel’s coverage instead, finds that the British people, though divided, remain mostly of the opinion that the war and the American alliance were and are in Britain’s interests.

The poll is so interesting, it is worth quoting in full, with explanations where necessary:

1) War - right or wrong

Thinking about the build-up to the Iraq war and everything that has happened since, do you think that taking military action was the right thing to do, or the wrong thing to do?

Right: 48%
Wrong: 43%
Don't know: 9%

A plurality of Britons still believe the war was right, even given “everything that has happened since.”  If the commentators who allege that support for the war has been damaged by the Hutton/WMD issues, then support must have been very strong indeed at some point.

2) Was the war legal?

Legal: 37%
Illegal: 39%
Don't know: 24%

This issue is complicated somewhat by the Government’s refusal to release its law officers’ advice on the legality of the war.  Despite Government assurances that the Attorney General advised that the war would be legal, a large swathe of the people believes this may not be the whole truth.  If the Government is telling the truth here, it would serve it to release the advice, in whole or in part.

3) Did the government lie about WMD?

In the run up to the war with Iraq, do you think Tony Blair and his government...

Told the truth: 29%
Exaggerated but did not lie: 40%
Lied: 22%
Don't know: 8%

This is a very interesting result.  Fully 70 percent reject the notion that the Government deliberately misled them.  The commentators who suggest that the British people think they were lied to may be getting the public response confused with the sentiment expressed in the answers to the next two questions.

4) Trust in Blair after the war

Trust him more: 4%
Trust him less: 42%
Makes no difference: 52%
Don't know: 2%

5) Satisfaction with Tony Blair

Satisfied: 37%
Dissatisfied: 57%
Don't know: 6%

It is Tony Blair’s personal reputation that has paid the price of the questions raised, not support for his policies.  Public perception of the handling of the war, with its “dodgy dossiers,” the Hutton “whitewash” and the refusal to release legal advice, has led to the public making its mind up on Tony Blair.  When questions were first raised about the ethics of the Blair government, early in his first term of office, he responded by asserting, “I’m a pretty straight sort of guy,” but a pattern of scandals and misjudgments have contributed to the public rejecting that assessment.  The war was just the latest in a series of incidents that led the public to doubt the Prime Minister’s straightforwardness.  Yet the next question puts this in context.

6) Who would you trust to decide next time?

If the British government had to decide again whether to take military action, who would you trust to make the best decision?

Tony Blair: 32%
Michael Howard: 22%
Charles Kennedy: 17%
Don't know/ None: 28%

Despite public misgivings over his integrity, he is still the party leader most trusted to do “the right thing.”  The public may have doubts over his methods, but they still prefer his outcomes.

7) Performance

Thinking of the following and their performance over the Iraq war, can you mark them out of 10, with 10 meaning they have done an excellent job and with 0 meaning a terrible job:

British forces: 8.3
US military: 6.6
BBC: 6.4
UN: 5.8
British intelligence: 5.6
Tony Blair: 4.9
Clare Short: 4.4
George W Bush: 4.3
France: 3.9
(Average scores out of 10)

British pride in the effectiveness of its military still clearly remains strong, but the public clearly has misgivings about all the other actors in the drama.  It is interesting to see that, for all the attacks President Bush has endured from the UK media, its people still rate him above the performance of France.

8) Security

Do you think the war with Iraq has or has not contributed to the long-term security...

Of the UK?

Has: 34%
Has not: 55%
Don't know: 11%

Of the US?

Has: 57%
Has not: 40%
Don't know: 3%

This is a very interesting finding, as it suggests that the British consider that Saddam’s Iraq was a genuine threat to the US, but not to the UK.  The answers cannot be taken as meaning that the British consider the war has raised the likelihood of attacks on British civilians.

9) What do you consider the main reason for the war?

Credibility of UN: 3%
WMD: 10%
Human rights: 27%
Oil: 15%
International terrorism: 15%
UK's relationship with USA: 26%

This answer could be illustrative of the thinking behind the answer to the previous question.  It may be that a large number of respondents felt that the prime reason for British involvement in the war was the Anglo-American military alliance, and that therefore British involvement in the war had nothing to do with long-term British security.

It is also interesting that the oft-repeated charge that the war was “all about oil” appears to have had little resonance.  The main reasons Tony Blair advocated British involvement – WMD, human rights and terrorism –convinced a majority of respondents (53%).

10) Bush and Blair

Is Britain's closeness to America...

Good for Britain: 45%
Bad for Britain: 20%
Makes no difference: 32%
Don't know: 3%

Is Tony Blair's closeness to George W Bush...

Good for Britain: 25%
Bad for Britain: 29%
Makes no difference: 42%
Don't know: 3%

(Half the sample were asked the first question, other half were asked the second question)

Again, this question illustrates the difference between policies and personalities.  It is clear that more people dislike the close relationship between Prime Minister and President than the Anglo-American alliance itself.  However, it is often said that not enough is done from the American side to point out the benefits of the alliance to the British.  Perhaps better presentation from the USA could reduce the “makes no difference” numbers.

11) Justification

In which of the following circumstances would you support going to war with another country?

Support war against another country if they...

Attacked the UK: 87%
Attacked an ally: 68%
Possessed WMD: 59%
Harbored terrorists: 51%
Committed atrocities: 55%
Don't know: 6%

Once again, the British support Blair’s policies, even if they do not trust the man.  Majorities of the populace support all the main reasons advanced to justify pre-emptive war.

12) Intervention

With regard to military intervention, do you agree or disagree with Tony Blair who said that "in certain clear circumstances, we [should] intervene, even though we are not directly threatened."?

Agree: 49%
Disagree: 45%
Don't know: 6%

The slight difference between the answer to this question and the previous one may suggest that the prospect of being seen to agree with Tony Blair persuaded some people to give an inconsistent answer.

13) Should Britain use military force...

Only when authorized by the UN: 46%
When in Britain's interests even without UN: 48%
Don't know: 6%

This is a statistical tie, but comparing it to similar questions asked before the Iraq War suggests that there has been a swing away from the UN.  Then, clear majorities expressed the opinion that the UK should act only when the UN gave its authorization.

14) Europe or USA?

In the future when military intervention is being considered, should Tony Blair side more closely with the USA or with France and Germany?

USA: 46%
France/Germany: 34%
Don't know: 21%

For the reasons given earlier, it would be interesting to see the answers to this question if it was asked of “Britain” rather than “Tony Blair,” but it clearly suggests that Britons continue to see themselves more as Anglospheric than European.

15) 'Axis of evil'

George Bush described North Korea, Iran, and Iraq as "an axis of evil". Do you believe the UK government could convince you to support military intervention against Iran and North Korea?

Could you support military action against Iran?

Yes: 26%
No: 66%
Don't know: 8%

Against North Korea?

Yes: 24%
No: 67%
Don't know: 8%

The most interesting thing about this question is that the figures are similar to those a year ago when the question was asked about Iraq.  As the last year has demonstrated, if a reasonable case can be made to the British, they will support military action.

Overall, the poll shows that the Anglo-American alliance is in good shape, and broadly supportive of its geopolitical thrust over the past year.  The issue is complicated by the low personal esteem in which the British hold both Tony Blair and George Bush, but when it comes to policy, the current Anglo-American direction is clearly preferred to any other.

Iain Murray is a Senior Fellow in International Policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute in Washington DC.