If
doubts remained as to the extent that last month’s
rigged Iranian elections were boycotted by Iranian
citizens, they were put to rest Tuesday, March 16.
That evening, on a walk through Tehran’s residential
neighborhoods, one could see just how loathed Iran’s
ruling theocracy is among the Iranian people.
The
occasion was Iran’s ancient Festival of Fire
celebration, a celebration of fire and lights that
originated from the pre-Islamic Zoroastrian religion.
Iranians in Tehran and other major cities took to the
streets and turned this celebration into a spontaneous
anti-regime act of protest. The state-run Iranian
Student News Agency reported that explosions could be
heard throughout
Tehran.
According to eyewitness accounts, homemade firebombs
and firecrackers, supposedly prepared for the
festival, were actually used to be thrown at the
security forces at the scene. As a show of their
disgust with the mullahs, people used pictures of
Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic
Republic, and his successor Ali Khamenei, to start the
bonfires and keep them inflamed. In some quarters of
Tehran, the official flag of the Islamic Republic was
set on fire.
As
evidenced by the Festival of Fire protests, EU
observers who called the low voter turnout in last
month’s Iranian elections a “setback for democracy,”
and others who described it as a blow to
Iran's young
democracy movement, missed out on the true meaning of
the elections: the choice to not choose.
In
Iran, there is a centuries-long tradition of resisting
despotism and struggling for democracy and popular
governance. This movement has had many ups and downs
but has never given up its quest, especially after the
establishment of a theocracy following the 1979
anti-monarchic revolution. One could say this quest
reached its pinnacle with last month’s election
boycott.
The
majority of Iranians who ended up boycotting the
elections silently cast their ballot with the only
possible alternative remaining: Iran's democratic
movement for regime change.
In the
last two decades, the paramount issue facing Iran—the
world’s most active sponsor of terrorism—has been how
to achieve fundamental change and realize unfulfilled
promises of freedom, popular governance and economic
prosperity.
Traditionally, advocates of diplomacy with
Tehran have pinned their hopes on a supposed “Ayatollah
Gorbachev” (Iranian “reformist” President Mohammed
Khatami is the latest candidate for this title) and on
the mullah-controlled sham elections as an instrument
for change. Meanwhile, on the ground in
Iran,
the situation has further deteriorated.
The much
trumpeted agreement Tehran reached with the IAEA last
November is collapsing as more evidence of the
mullahs’ nuclear deception surfaces. Iran’s persistent
stifling of all political dissent, dismal human rights
record, continued development of weapons of mass
destruction, export of fundamentalism to neighboring
countries and meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq
have made one thing abundantly clear: a metamorphosis
of the ruling Iranian theocracy from within is just a
delusion.
In a
recent interview with Newsweek, one of the leaders of
Iran’s now seemingly defunct reformist faction, the
President's brother, Mohammad Reza Khatami, suggested
the post-Franco
Spain
model as the way to achieve change in Iran. However,
Iran’s conservative faction has been presenting to its
sympathetic audience abroad the “China model” as the
elixir for the countless social, political and
economic problems Iran is facing. This solution, which
consists of a dose of superficial social changes mixed
with an iron fisted response to any political dissent
tempered by some supposed economic growth, is supposed
to contain the boiling dissatisfaction in the country.
Notwithstanding the vast political, social, and
economic differences between Iran, Spain and China,
these assertions amount to the deliriums of a regime
out of steam and out of ideas.
But
there is a more realistic solution: the “Iranian
Model” for regime change that is emerging from the
university campuses and streets of Tehran and other
cities. The 1999 student uprisings gave the world a
glimpse of the explosive nature of Iran’s young
people. Just a week before last month’s elections,
nearly 1,000 students at the University of Tehran
chanted in protest, “Referendum, referendum, is the
slogan of the people.” And since the elections,
Iranian cities of Boukan, Marivan, and Feraydoun Kenar
have witnessed anti government protests, all of which
turned violent.
The
call for a boycott was first made by
Iran’s
democratic opposition forces long before last month’s
elections. The Interior Ministry declared a 28 percent
turnout in
Tehran, including 16 percent of votes voided since they were
blank protest ballots. Even taking the Ministry’s
number at face value, some quick math shows that 77
percent of Tehranis did not vote. Indeed, for weeks
prior to the elections, the slogans of “No to Sham
Elections” and “Referendum on Regime Change” adorned
the walls, billboards and lampposts in
Tehran
and other major Iranian cities. The call to have a
United Nations-supervised regime change referendum was
also beamed into
Iran
via satellite televisions based abroad.
The
February 20 Iranian elections represented the Iranian
citizenry’s call for a real change in the structures
that have failed
Iran
for over two decades. In this sense, the election
provided a potential strategic boost for democracy in
Iran. However, if the U.S. does not seize the moment
and encourage
Iran’s
democratic opposition, it may indeed end up being a
“setback for democracy.”
A few
days after the Iranian elections, on February 24,
President Bush condemned the Iranian regime's efforts
to stifle freedom of speech saying that “the United
States supports the Iranian people's aspirations to
live in freedom, enjoy their God-given rights and
determine their own destiny.” This pledge should be
turned into a solid and consistent policy of helping
Iranians change the current regime. We should support,
rather than ignore or hinder, the campaign by Iran's
democratic opposition.
Nir Boms
is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies and at the Council for Democracy and
Tolerance. Reza Bulorchi is the Executive Director of
the US Alliance for Democratic Iran.